Multiple factors are shaping the National Rally’s cautious approach towards Trump and his MAGA movement, analysts say: From the French party’s traditional, if fading, distrust of a ‘hegemonic’ United States, to the negative impact on France of US tariffs, to strong antipathy towards Trump on the part of many French voters.
“Overall they are relatively ideologically aligned with Trump, and they’ve been positive about his re-election,” said Camille Lons, deputy Paris Office head of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) of the National Rally. “But they’re much more careful than a number of other populist leaders in Europe. There is more distance in the relationship than in Germany, or Italy for example.”
Trump’s shadow extends across Europe
In Germany, some observers believe that strong backing by Trump allies, like Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk, helped to catapult the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to second place in the February elections. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s warm relations with the US leader have lifted her standing within the European Union, which sees her as a potential bridge to smoothing ties with Washington.
The Trump administration’s influence is also discernable elsewhere in Europe, including in Hungary and in Poland, both of which hosted the US-founded Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) this year — a first for Warsaw, where the Trump-endorsed candidate Karol Nawrocki won June’s presidential elections.
Europe’s far-right leaders have been positive about US President Donald Trump’s re-electionImage: Ricardo Rubio/Europa Press/abaca/picture alliance
“From the American side, these parties are seen as potential instruments to influence European politics,” said German Marshall Fund program officer Zsuzsanna Vegh. “The fact they’re euroskeptic and challenge the European Union plays into the hands of the [Trump] administration.”
Seeking votes
But the US leader’s brand carries risks for the National Rally, analysts say, even though France’s leading opposition party shares his nationalistic, anti-immigration views. A June ECFR poll showed 55% of French saw Trump’s policies as not only harmful for their own country, but half also believed they harmed the United States. Among National Rally voters, only 37% considered Trump’s policies good for US citizens; just 18% thought they were good for French ones.
“The National Rally is pursuing a strategy of vote maximalization,” ahead of the 2027 elections, said Vegh. “It needs to appear as a party that is moderate enough to be able to draw voters from the mainstream — and not alienate its own electorate, which is also quite skeptical of Trump’s impact on France.”
Trump’s threat of massivetariffs on EU imports — potentially hitting French industry and agriculture — offers one example of the negative fallout, Vegh said. The National Rally “can’t really risk appearing to be on overly friendly terms with a leader who might harm the interests of their core, blue-collar electorate.”
For National Rally leader and three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, the Trump administration poses a delicate balancing act in other ways. Since inheriting the party from her father in 2011, Le Pen has spent years broadening and diversifying its base, reaching out to gay, Jewish, younger and more center-right voters — even as the National Rally’s anti-immigrant, populist core remained intact. Her party emerged in first place in last year’s European Parliament and French National Assembly elections, although it failed to capture a majority.
Unlike other European far-right figures, Le Pen was not invited to Trump’s inauguration. Earlier this year, her 29-year-old protege and National Rally president, Jordan Bardella, tangled with MAGA heavyweight Steve Bannon — cancelling a CPAC speech after Bannon appeared to make a Nazi salute. Bardella’s move earned a sharp rebuke from Bannon.
“That’s a good example of the risk of being associated with Trump and his entourage,” said the ECFR’s Lons, “at a moment when the RN has been working so hard in trying to normalize its image and appear like a party that is able to govern.”
Bardella is poised to take Le Pen’s place as presidential candidate if she loses her appealImage: Thomas Padilla/AP/picture alliance/dpa
Mixed views on Trump
But when Le Pen was convicted of graft in March over a fake jobs scandal involving European Parliament hires — potentially sinking her presidential bid — Trump slammed the judicial decision as a “witch hunt.” More recently, a Trump State Department appointee offered to bankroll Le Pen’s appeal with US government funds, according to Politico and Reuters — an overture that was reportedly rebuffed. (Bardella is poised to take Le Pen’s place as presidential candidate if she loses her appeal.)
On a recent, party-organized visit to France’s opulent Senate one sweltering afternoon, National Rally supporters offered a mixed take on the US leader and his impact. Former flight attendant Jacques Le Roy said he hoped his party would replicate Trump’s signature measures: From tariffs and immigration crackdowns, to massive government layoffs which Le Roy described as “degreasing the system.”
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He had a thumbs-up, too, for diluting the powers of the European Union, which the US leader has described as born to “screw” the US. “We agree with a lot of Trump’s ideas,” Le Roy said. “It’s normal we have our differences. But the ideas remain the same.”
But finance student Noe Marguinal, also at the Senate visit, was less enthusiastic. “France and Europe are extremely tied to the United States, and in my opinion too much,” Marguinal said. “I think it’s better we decide more for ourselves than remain under the subordination of the United States.”
Transatlantic parallels
For the National Rally’s critics, Trump’s Washington sets an alarming precedent. Both Le Pen and Bardella lead the polls as potential presidential candidates. Analysts and ordinary French residents wonder whether a longtime ‘Republican Front’ of parties, previously blocking the National Rally from winning elections, will finally crumble.
At a recent anti-Trump protest in Paris, many expressed fears of a National Rally victory. “Could it happen here?” asked French musician Clothilde Desjeunes, of the Trump administration’s impact since taking office. “Yes. That’s why we’re out here fighting.”
Another protester, Cathy, with US-French nationality, echoed those concerns. “I’m worried about the National Rally, I’m very worried,” she said, declining to give her last name for fear of reprisal. “I see a lot of parallels with the United States.”
What happens across the Atlantic could help shape the National Rally’s electoral fortunes, analysts say. If Washington imposes steep tariffs on France, or if Trump’s policies fail spectacularly, the party could feel the aftershocks, said Lons. Optionally, she said, it could be lifted by a surging European far-right alliance that Washington is trying to cultivate.
It’s more likely, she believes, that the party will hedge its bets. “They’ll keep a distance with Trump, so they’re not affected by his controversial positions,” she said, “but they’ll still be reinforced by the overall rise of the far right across Europe.”
Edited by: Maren Sass, M. Cavanagh
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